Switzerland

Switzerland spent many years trying to make monetary targets work, in the face of recurring exchange rate pressures which led it to allow deviations from those targets; in 2000 it began to pursue its own version of inflation targeting, but this was again disrupted by exchange rate pressures which forced it to set a floor for the EUR/SwF exchange rate from late 2011 to early 2015. It then returned, with greater success, to inflation targeting.

Years Targets and attainment Classification
1974 exchange rate floated late 1973, no other targets, but underlying focus on price stability; monetary policy operated through indirect instruments loosely structured discretion LSD
1975-77 monetary targets (point targets for average of 12-month growth rates over year) met but monetary growth volatile; monetary policy aims to control monetary base M0 as instrument to control M1 loose monetary targeting LMT
1978-81 monetary targets respectively overshot, suspended, undershot and undershot, in response to appreciating exchange rate loosely structured discretion LSD
1982-87 monetary targets (M0, average of 12-month growth rates) met loose monetary targeting LMT
1988-90 monetary targets undershot, in context of revisions to liquidity requirements and new interbank clearing system loosely structured discretion LSD
1991-95 medium-term monetary target met for 1990-94 target period (but annual growth under and over implied target 1992 and 1993, in context of exchange rate pressures); monetary growth okay 1995; policy operated largely through swap transactions in forex market to affect banks’ reserves loose monetary targeting LMT
1996-9 medium-term monetary target increasingly overshot for 1995-99 target period, partial switch of focus to M3 (instead of M0) from late 1997 loosely structured discretion LSD
2000-2011 price stability definition of 0-2% on CPI rather than inflation target, focus on medium term, but definition regularly met; operational target range for 3-month SwF LIBOR, pursued via repo transactions; policy decisions forward-looking, forecast-based; some improvements in transparency and central bank independence; 2009-11 rising concern with recurring appreciation pressures despite large forex purchases leads to announcement September 2011 of floor for EUR/SwF exchange rate; macroprudential policies from 2011 loose inflation targeting LIT
2012-14 continuing concern with possibility of deflation, and small net deflation on average in 2012 and 2013 (as against 0-2% price stability definition), together with continuing exchange rate floor (one-sided exchange rate target); medium term inflation expectations still anchored (according to SNB’s Quarterly Bulletin) inflation with exchange rate targeting IwERT
2015-23 exchange rate floor abandoned early 2015 in response to renewed capital inflows (and massively expanded central bank balance sheet); from 2015 negative interest rates (on marginal deposits at central bank), unsterilised forex purchases, to counter recurring appreciation pressures; 2022 negative interest rates ended, forex sales; price stability range met or nearly met each year with average inflation within 1% of range, while medium- and long-term inflation expectations also within range; strong fiscal and monetary response to Covid-19; early 2023 state-facilitated merger of Credit Suisse with UBS loose inflation targeting LIT

Selected IMF references: EDI 1994 ch IV especially Annex I; RED 1995 pp18-26; RED 1996 pp9-10; SISA 1999 pp23-9; SR 2000 pp15-17; SI 2001 pp31-5; SR2002 p13; SR 2009 pp24-7; SR 2010 pp12-16; SR 2011 pp10-14; SI 2012; SR 2013 pp13-15; SR 2014 pp5, 9-11; SR 2015 pp4, 17-18; SR 2016, pp6-9; SR 2018 pp10-13, 16; SR 20019 pp10-13; SR 2021 pp14-17; SR 2023 pp6-7, 27; SI 2024 pp4-7; SR 2024 pp13-15, 30.

Additional sources: Laubach and Posen (1997); Rich (1997, 2000); Baltensperger et al. (2007); Swiss National Bank, Quarterly Bulletin, June 2023, p22.

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