South Sudan

Years

Targets and attainment

Classification

2012-23

new currency introduced at time of independence from Sudan in July 2011, pegged from September 2011 to USD; new central bank (taking over from southern branch of Sudanese central bank, within limited financial system) rations forex sales, which provokes rise of parallel market; 2012 dispute with Sudan over oil transit fees leads to short-term shutdown of oil production, cutting almost all  tax revenue; fiscal restraint and limits on central bank lending to government delay but do not prevent inflation-depreciation spiral; wider efforts to build capacity and institutions, but persistent internal tensions and conflict, civil war from late 2013 with major internal and external displacements; peace agreement 2015 but renewed civil war 2016, new peace agreement 2018; economic and humanitarian crisis; late 2015 exchange rate floated but managed with depreciation initially rapid, slower from 2017, with rising parallel market premium; unity government early 2020; severe disruption from Covid-19 despite prompt containment and later fiscal-monetary response; continuing humanitarian crisis, with large number of internally and externally displaced people; recurring impacts on budget from oil price swings; from early 2021 focus on reserve money, faster depreciation and forex reforms lead to convergence of official and parallel rates late 2021 plus wider stabilisation; central bank commits to no further monetary financing and to future introduction of new instruments; 2019-21 major floods, 2022 global commodity prices rises; new term deposit facility late 2022; continuing political tensions lead to postponement of elections to end-2024; civil war in Sudan (starting April 2023) leads to arrival of refugees and previously displaced people plus loss of oil exports; statistical database very weak but reforms under way

loosely structured discretion LSD